It seems almost unfair. Clinical IT systems, in the last few years, have generally enjoyed a monopoly of the applications spotlight, often leaving operational apps sitting in the shadows, on back burners and positioned at tail ends of healthcare's to-do list. But that might be poised to change.  

 

A new HIMSS Analytics report released this week highlights significant growth potential for several applications occupying the operational side of the health IT arena, and some of this growth goes "off the charts," said Lorren Pettit, vice president of market research at HIMSS Analytics, in an interview with Healthcare IT News. HIMSS Analytics is Healthcare IT News' sister organization. 

 

Overall, nine operational applications are projected to see negative numbers, and 14 are poised for some form of positive growth. But three in particular saw some bigger-than-expected numbers. 

 

Financial modeling came out on top, with HIMSS researchers estimating a more than 12 percent sales growth annually over the next five years. Enterprise resource planning, or ERP, and bed management applications also fared well, having projected sales growth of 5 percent and 3 percent respectively. 

 

Why these three? Pettit pointed to several factors. 

 

For one, the market penetration for financial modeling, ERP and bed management is among the lowest across the 26 operations apps HIMSS officials examined in the report. The market is not saturated for this triad, unlike, say, accounts payable or patient billing, both of which have market penetration rates nearing 100 percent.

 

The Affordable Care Act is also a big shaper, specifically regarding the "off the charts" financial modeling growth, as it includes carrot-and-stick provisions aimed at shifting healthcare groups away from fee-for-service care toward value-centric models, such as accountable care organizations. 

 

A two-year-old report published by The Commonwealth Fund, highlighting the ACO experience of Premier healthcare alliance put forth that financial modeling was integral for Premier to ensure accurate Medicare and Medicaid payments from the federal government. 

 

"Financial modeling is essential to evaluate various payment options, including the two Shared Savings Program tracks, capitated payments offered though the CMS Innovation Center and private payer arrangements," Premier officials concluded. 

 

And it's not just Premier. Some 18.2 million Americans are currently covered by an ACO contract, according to Health Affairs research released earlier this year. That number's up from 13.6 million in 2012, so that's more people in the market looking for financial modeling capabilities.

 

Pettit also cited that the report data suggests the needs of healthcare organizations are far from one-dimensional, as most groups aren't going after a single application. From the three applications seeing the most market growth, Pettit said there's evidently "a multiplicity of approaches that they're using to gain efficiencies."

 

There's also a complexity to the numbers, Pettit pointed out. For example, why aren’t they higher?

 

"Operational applications have been sort of off the radar screen over the last few years for hospitals," he said. And that's because the federal government's Meaningful Use Program, which has thus far doled out some $22 billion to eligible providers and hospitals who meaningfully use electronic health records, created an "unnatural market" for clinical IT systems. Resulting, Pettit said, in providers going where they money is. So in healthcare's rush to update and purchase these clinical applications, the operational side got the cold shoulder for a while – and it's still happening. 

 

"You can only have so many balls up in the air," said Pettit. 

 

But expect a shake-up, he added. Meaningful use will have its end, and with it will come a marked shift in application priorities. 

 

"I do think there's going to be a transition back to a natural market," added Pettit, one where healthcare groups are going to revisit the operations side of things in big numbers. "I see that as a potential new wave coming up in terms of purchasing behaviors."