Two research firms in the healthcare IT space have produced press releases in the last fortnight predicting the next “great wave” in EHR purchases among U.S. hospitals.

“One in three large hospitals are in a buying spree,” reports Black Book Market Research, “selecting new EHRs, changing out original systems after implementation delays, cost run-ups and physician revolts, meaningful use snafus, silo complaints, interoperability disconnects, and accountable care reforms.”

Meanwhile, KLAS issued a release, “Acute Care EMR 2014: The Next Buying Wave,” that begins: “Almost half of large hospitals interviewed indicated that they will be making a new EMR purchase by 2016…”

“Where the last round of EMR purchases was fueled by meaningful use requirements and enticing reimbursements, this next round is being fueled by concerns about outdated technology and health system consolidation,” said report author Colin Buckley. “This shift in focus will play a major factor in which EMRs are being considered.”

Wow! Makes you wish Epic were publicly traded, huh?

But to be honest, I’m not in a hurry to rearrange my (modest) portfolio just yet. While the data I’m looking at doesn’t rule out a surge in EHR acquisition, it provides some reason for skepticism.

The main reason is historical activity. The chart below shows the install and replacement rate of clinical data repositories (a proxy for EMRs) according to the HIMSS Analytics Database and Dorenfest Institute.

Over the last five years, the average replacement and installation rate of EHRs is 10.7 percent annually for hospitals with 200 or more beds. If you included all hospitals in the HA database, the replacement and installation rate drops to just 3.8 percent.

I asked Lorren Pettit, vice president of market research at HIMSS Analytics, if the historical data provided any clues about future activity in the space. Using regression analysis, Pettit says the data predict “a slight decline in the percentage of hospitals each year replacing their” EHRs – about .6 percent annually.