UK researchers have used AI to develop a model that scan patient EHRs and predict who is at risk of developing pancreatic cancer up to 20 months before an actual diagnosis.

That’s according to a study recently presented at the ESMO World Congress on Gastrointestinal Cancer in early July.

The analysis reviewed 1,378 patients aged 15-99 years diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in 2005 to 2010. Each patient was matched by age and sex to four people who did not get pancreatic cancer, and information on symptoms, diseases, and medications in the two years prior to diagnosis were used to create a model predicting who would develop pancreatic cancer. 

"We used AI to study a large volume of data and look for combinations that predict who will develop pancreatic cancer," said study author Dr. Ananya Malhotra, research fellow in statistics, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. "It's not possible for the human eye to recognize these trends in such large amounts of data.”

On average, 12 in every 100,000 people develop pancreatic cancer, but between 70-80% of patients are diagnosed at an advanced stage when it is too late for curative treatment and five years beyond diagnosis, only 6% of patients have survived. Earlier screening can help identify cancer when treatments are most effective, thus improving survival. 

In the study, in people under 60, the model could predict who was at higher risk of pancreatic cancer up to 20 months before diagnosis. That said, the model is not quite ready for widespread use.

"Our model has estimated that around 1,500 tests need to be performed to save one life from pancreatic cancer," explained Malhotra. "This is unlikely to be small enough to make screening viable just yet. However, it shows that AI holds potential to narrow down the number of people we need to screen. We should be able to reduce this quite a lot further by matching pancreatic cancer patients to controls from the general population, which is what we plan to do next. Pairing this predictive model with a non-invasive screening test, followed by scans and biopsies, could lead to earlier diagnosis for a significant proportion of patients and a greater number of patients surviving this cancer.”

According to experts, using AI to identify people at high-risk of pancreatic cancer up to 20 months earlier could make a significant difference in survival rates. 

"This should be enough time to screen for pancreatic cancer, then proceed with diagnosis and treatment in patients with a positive screening test," said Dr. Angela Lamarca, consultant in medical oncology, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK. "Early diagnosis in pancreatic cancer gives the highest chance of cure.”